Op-ed scores after quake

The following op-ed, an opinion piece so called because newspapers print
them opposite the editorial page, was published Jan. 23 in the St. Louis
Post-Dispatch six days after the Northridge, Calif., earthquake struck.
Slightly altered versions of the article, keyed to local audiences, also
ran in the opinion pages of the Indianapolis Star, Arkansas Gazette,
Springfield State Journal-Register and Decatur Herald and Review.

The author, Robert Olshansky, is a UI professor of urban and regional
planning. He has written extensively on earthquake preparedness and was
in Los Angeles studying damage from the quake when the op-ed was published.


     Earthquake Preparedness: What If It Happens Here?

                    By Robert Olshansky

Yes, it could happen here. Everything you saw on television: collapsed
roadways, people buried in twisted buildings, fires, hospitals out of
service. Earthquakes are not limited to California.

The largest earthquake known to have occurred in North America struck at
New Madrid, Mo., in 1812. The seismic zone that caused it is still active.
Scientists say there is a 40 to 63 percent chance of this zone generating
an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 or greater within the next 15 years.  This is
about the same size as the earthquake that struck Los Angeles Monday morning.

But there are two key differences between the Central United States and
California. One is that seismic waves are transmitted for much greater
distances on this more solid part of the continent. Thus, a magnitude 6.3
earthquake here is expected to cause much more widespread shaking than a
similar event in California.

The other difference is that we are not as well-prepared. Very little of
the building stock in this part of the country is designed to withstand
earthquake shaking. A 1992 study by the National Committee on Property
Insurance found that the statistically expected earthquake damages over a
40-year period in the Memphis areas are 68 percent of those expected for
Los Angeles County. This is a stunning figure, considering that Los Angeles
County has 12 times the building stock value of Memphis, and that it
experiences more earthquakes.

Similarly, a 1990 study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency found
that an earthquake of 7.6 magnitude at New Madrid could cause $2.9 billion
in property damage in St. Louis alone, with many billions more in damage in
southern Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana and Tennessee.

Why is the overall risk level in cities like St. Louis and Memphis nearly
equal to that of Los Angeles? Because of the poor quality of the building
stock. St. Louis has old housing stock and did not begin to require seismic
design for new construction until very recently. Illinois still does not
require local building codes, a requirement that exists in the majority of
the 50 states.

When we have a flood or Arctic storm, we have warning. We evacuate
hazardous areas, close schools, and prepare in many ways for the event
expected to occur tomorrow. But earthquakes do not occur "tomorrow." Nor
do they even occur later today. Earthquakes always occur right now.

We cannot prevent earthquakes, but we can prevent them from being major
disasters. Education, planning and proper building construction are all
proven ways to minimize earthquake losses, deaths, and injuries.  Actions
need not be expensive nor require new layers of government bureaucracy. We
simply need to integrate earthquake awareness into many of our existing
activities and institutions.

We can retrofit our police and fire stations, schools, hospitals and
highway bridges. The seven states at or near the New Madrid fault can
establish a seismic safety advisory committee to encourage preparedness
activities. Kentucky and Arkansas have very active committees, and Missouri
has just established one this year. In Missouri and other states with
seismic building codes, we must beef up enforcement.

The 1989 San Francisco earthquake caused a flurry of preparedness activity
in the Midwest. Much of that activity has since abated. Yet the threat, as
demonstrated a few days ago, has not gone away.


(Faculty members who think they may have something to contribute to the
opinions pages of national newspapers should contact Mark Reutter, the
UI News Bureau editor who assists faculty members with the writing and
placement of op-ed pieces. Reutter can be reached through campus mail
at 1201 W. Nevada St., MC-142 or by calling 333-0568.)