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June flash index indicates state may be climbing out of economic slump
Mark
Reutter, Business Editor
(217) 333-0568
7/1/2003
EDITORS,
NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists
at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information
on the Illinois economy.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index
indicates that the state may be climbing out of its prolonged slump.
The June reading of 96.7 – combined with May’s reading of
96.8 – represents the highest level of state economic activity
since February 2002, but also suggests no burst of business investment
or consumer spending following the end of the Iraqi war.
The last 16 months have been marked by an extremely slow and uncertain
recovery from the recession in 2001.
"While avoiding a double-dip recession, neither the United States
nor the Illinois economies have yet to experience a real breakout from
the malaise that has followed the 2001 slump," said J. Fred Giertz,
the Illinois economist who released the June reading today.
The Flash Index is still below the 100 dividing line between economic
growth and contraction. The corporate profits component of the Index
was up slightly in June, individual income taxes were slightly lower,
and sales taxes were virtually unchanged compared with sales taxes in
June a year ago.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through June 30.
