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Illinois economic index down slightly, but still expanding, expert says
J. Fred
Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
217-244-4822
Mark Reutter, Business Editor, News Bureau
217-333-0568
12/1/05
EDITORS, NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information on the Illinois economy.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill.
— The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index fell slightly
in its rate of growth in November, to 106.4, from its 106.9 level in
October.
Because the Index remains well above 100, the break-even point between
growth and contraction, the state economy continues to expand at a robust
rate.
The Index has been above 106 for six months. “This is consistent
with sustained strong economic growth that might be expected at this
stage of the business cycle,” J. Fred Giertz, the University of
Illinois economist who released the data, said today.
He noted that November marks four years since the end of the 2001 national
recession. “Since 1980, expansions have lasted about 10 years.
If this pattern continues, the state and nation can expect several more
years of expansion,” he said.
Sales-tax receipts were up slightly from November of last year, while
income-tax receipts were down marginally. Corporate receipts were weak
for the month, but this may be the result of the timing of payments,
since November is historically a month of low corporate revenues, according
to Giertz.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of state growth rates in consumer
spending, corporate earnings and personal income. Tax receipts from
corporate income, retail sales and personal income are adjusted for
inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each
component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through
Nov 30.
